Engines of Luxury Growth
Whether it’s loud and proud and in your face, or unique and subtle and with just a touch of glamor, this year’s luxury consumer is certainly resilient in the face of political and economic headwinds. Yet in the current and emerging landscape of the luxury sector, it’s key to uncovering the factors driving growth and the opportunities ahead.
In its 12th edition of True-Luxury Global Consumer Insights, BCG and Altagamma partnered to explore the state of the luxury consumer. This year, the annual quantitative consumer survey is unique in its scale and scope, collecting and analyzing the views of more than 10,000 respondents, compiling insight and intelligence across 100-plus questions put to top-tier and aspirational buyers. NativeResearch also partnered on the survey.
BCG’s big picture of the study, “Luxury Is Back on Track, With Healthier Foundations (And AI Is Here To Stay),” is that personal luxury is having a healthy resurgence: Growth for 2026 is expected at 2-5% CAGR, moving to 4-7% by 2029, with luxury now built on healthier and more balanced foundations than during the “rebound and reset” years following the pandemic.
What does that mean from a brand perspective? For one thing, the share of aspirational consumers in the revenue mix moves from ~70% in 2016 to ~50% in the next cycle, more balanced towards the top tier. One-time buyers decline from ~60% to ~40% of the customer base, as the sector shifts from acquisition to retention. The mix of traditional personal luxury categories rebalances from ~80% toward ~60%, reflecting a broader consumer move from pure wardrobe investment toward lifestyle and experiential luxury. Finally, cross-border sales, historically boosted by tourist spending, rebalance from ~50% to below 30%, as wealth-driven domestic purchasing becomes the structural engine of demand.
So it seems like a healthy upswing, but what’s the bottom line? BCG points to top-tier clients as a growth engine, rising from 14% to 24% in share of spend, uncorrelated to macro-cycles. Aspirational consumers, by contrast, have been the source of almost all the market’s volatility over recent years, but this year the free-fall is finally slowing down.
Product is still a dominant force in luxury purchases, along with design and aesthetics, craftsmanship and quality of execution, and timelessness and lasting appeal. However, by way of striking contrast, logo visibility was named as the least important factor across all product categories, confirming that overt brand signaling is no longer showing up as key value.
Price rejection, BCG notes, is becoming structural and not tier-specific: 70% of consumers walked away from a purchase because they felt the price was unjustified. Encouragingly, these consumers are not lost, with more than 50% remaining within the brand or the luxury sector, switching to a different product from the same brand or moving to a competitor. For brands, the message seems to be that price strategy and merchandising require a rigorous review, without losing sight of the craftsmanship and product quality that consumers across all segments have confirmed as the foundation of what luxury means to them.
TMRE Session Spotlight: Worth the Night In
During TMRE 2026, which will be held October 5-7, the session, “Worth the Night In” will be presented by Renata Policicio, SVP Research, Streaming, Warner Bros Discovery, and Piril Paker Yagli, Vice President, Global Brand & Growth Research, Warner Bros. Discovery.
This session will explore the strategic link between premium branding and high-value consumer behavior in a mass-market landscape. It will also examine how cultural relevance and quality curation shape a brand’s competitive edge and drive long-term loyalty.
Click here for more TMRE 2026 registration information and the show agenda.
Building on the Trust Premium
An interesting sidenote of the BCG report is that AI is still largely untapped in luxury and high-end markets. While the trends have been a move from traditional retail to digital branding and marketing, BCG posits that the growth of AI will happen at scale rather than limited to low risk experiments.
According to BCG, the survey asked: Are luxury consumers using GenAI in their personal lives? Do they use it to research luxury, and trust it as a source? Does it affect their awareness, perception and purchase intent alongside seven concrete GenAI use cases across client-facing brand domains?
The results show that high-end consumers are increasingly bringing AI along for their luxury purchase journey, with 87% using it weekly and as many as 40% daily. Of these, around 80% are already using it to research luxury. The survey also found they are asking for recommendations and then comparing options — marking a real shift in how consumers conduct research across personal and experiential categories.
Adoption is one thing; however, trust is another. Respondents indicate that AI/GenAI tools have already earned a level of credibility that goes well beyond what the industry would expect: with a net trust score of 29pp, ranking fourth among the main information sources for luxury, already on a par with traditional web search, and almost level with word of mouth. Consumer awareness, brand awareness, and purchase intent all experience positive AI involvement across luxury use cases in the study.
“This trust premium is still at an early stage, but it is meaningful for brands willing to engage with AI/GenAI as a genuine channel rather than an experiment,” BCG advises.
Whether it’s advertising, content, or clientele services, the lever is trust — demonstrating that AI and GenAI enhance rather than replaces the human relationship, which remains at the heart of luxury service. The careful growth of AI will only enhance the still emerging state of its partnerships with fashion and luxury companies.
Video: “The Secrets Behind Our Addiction To Luxury Brands,” courtesy of Luxury Academy.
